FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there's a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars. As of February 2023, California had the most mass shootings in the United States, with 25 total shootings since 1982. Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%. Related: Would Pennsylvania make a better early primary state? Support local journalism. DeSantis: Standing Up to Corporate Activism. The presidential primary contests are usually decided before Pennsylvania holds its primary, which is on Tuesday, April 26, this year. Youve Answered Lifes Questions. He held his own in . But also, the early voter turnout we're seeing has been - seems to have been a factor. Which are solidly blue counties and red counties? Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016. Biden won Maricopa with just over 50% of the vote, a large increase compared with Clinton's 45% in 2016. Likewise, Republicans have elected many statewide officeholders in states that vote strongly Democratic in presidential elections, such as Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, and New Jersey. Like around the country, we're seeing. Biden's success could be attributed to many factors. The numbers are clear: in 2020, 57.97 percent of Washington voters chose Joe Biden, and only 38.77 percent chose Donald Trump. Several incidents will require follow-up byinvestigators. That election saw Donald Trump win the state by 0.7%, one of three 'blue wall' states (Michigan & Wisconsin the others) he won on his way to winning the presidential election. Holly Ready to hear what you have to say on Pennsylvania! Quickly thereafter, the term Purple America entered the public lexicon as a way of stating that the United States is not as divided as the political pundits would have the people believe. Biden rebuilt the "blue wall" and expanded the map Rust Belt states have been the base of Democrats' electoral map for a generation, but along with winning them back, Biden also expanded the. But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump Michigan and Pennsylvania surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. High turnout meant long lines, which remain active at some locations.(Any eligible voter in line by 8 p.m. is permitted to vote. With all eyes on Georgia and the upcoming Senate runoffs slated for Jan. 5, 2021, Emory College Dean Michael A. Elliott hosted a panel discussion Dec. 2 examining Georgia's new swing-state status and future role in American politics from business, marketing . Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results betweenmidnight and 1 a.m. Colored bars represent electoral votes by party. Data: Wikipedia through 2018; 270toWin research. Over the last decade, there has been a notable increase in Latinos' share of the overall population in Arizona, up from 25 to 31 percent since 2000. Explained! And since groceries are taxable, Idaho gives residents an annual credit to offset the fees (the credit amount is higher for seniors over 65). Nov. 12, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC / . Getting at the red mirage idea, if we dont get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania its easy to see Trumps lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. Special elections, if any, are excluded. If youre willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email. Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. Error! NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. In the three presidential elections since 2008, Indiana and North Carolina went back to supporting Republicans. But maps that color entire counties red or blue can dupe viewers: they make both states . In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. The 21st-century association of colors in American politics is contrary to the long-standing conventions of political color in most other countries whereby red symbols (such as the red flag or red star) are associated with leftist politics. In his address before the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, Barack Obama spoke on the issue of blue states and red states, saying: "The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into red states and blue states red states for Republicans, and blue states for Democrats. [53] White, middle-aged, Christian, married males made up McCain's largest constituency. We may not know results in PA fordays. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. The state is widely considered blue-leaning, a trend which moves parallel with the growth of the Washington D.C. and Richmond suburbs. By Allan James Vestal, Andrew Briz, Annette Choi, Beatrice Jin, Andrew McGill and Lily Mihalik. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. Americas Colleges Have Become Progressive Liberal Rat Holes, Russia and the High Priesthood of the Neocon Synod, DeSantis Hits the Road for Law and Order Tour. Trump's lone breakthrough in the "blue wall" in 2020 was the one electoral vote from Maine, which he again won. Tennessee. Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Vertical lines before 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 show Census-related redistricting breakpoints. Your Cash Swept into Your Brokers Bank Account! But, in the coming days, Pennsylvania underwent what has come to be known as a "blue shift." Democrats had requested more mail-in ballots than Republicans had by a margin of two to one. Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections choosing 20 of the last 25 . One problem occurs when areal units differ in size and significance, as is the case with election maps. Here are the 10 states with the largest Democratic advantage: Wyoming - R+26 West Virginia - R+23 North Dakota - R+20 Oklahoma - R+20 Pennsylvania, where the U.S. Constitution was written, was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. Feelings of cultural and political polarization between red and blue states, which have gained increased media attention since the 2004 election, have resulted in increased mutual feelings of alienation and enmity. Cartograms developed by Gastner, Shalizi, and Newman at the University of Michigan provide another way to depict election results,[28] which change from a red-blue paradigm to one of shades of purple.[29]. There was one historical use, associated with boss rule, of blue for Democrats and red for Republicans: during the late 19th century and early 20th century, Texas county election boards used color-coding to help Spanish-speaking and illiterate voters identify the parties;[8] however, this system was not applied consistently in Texas and was not replicated in any other state. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? National conventions for both major parties increasingly feature the parties' respective colors, from the colors emphasized on convention podiums to the color conventioneers can be seen wearing on the delegate floor. [37][38] In 2020, 58 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties. Well, Arizona is still counting and theres enough coming in to turn the state. After flipping red as a key swing state for President Donald Trump in 2016, former Vice President Joe Biden claimed Wisconsin's electoral votes today in what is being called one of the most important elections of a lifetime.. Wisconsin was a battleground state in the 2020 presidential election, and its 10 electoral votes were highly sought after by both candidates due to Wisconsin's . So, assuming NYT's 98%+ reporting estimate is correct, Trump got more raw votes out of Washington County like he wanted quite a bit more. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also alluded the color scheme when it launched a national "Red to Blue Program" in 2006. Eight of the states hardest hit by the coronavirusNew Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts. Copyright 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives. Pennsylvania is considered to be a perennial swing state, including in the 2020 presidential election. Winner chosen by the House of Representatives According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. These are general election results for the years listed. The Tennessee Department of Health reports that 1,451 people died of drug overdose within the state in 2015. A 2021 poll found that 52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support partitioning the United States into multiple countries based on political party lines. In the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeated President Trump by reclaiming Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for his party. The political map of Pennsylvania is often described as a T with Republicans holding sway up the center of the state and across its northern tier, and Democrats strongest in the southeast and southwest. Is Your Good for Nothing Cash Doing Anything with Its Life? These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. These are general election results for the years listed. Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. Thirty of Penn's 44 counties gave Trump 60% of the vote. Additional data from U.S. Census Bureau, MIT Election Lab and POLITICO reporting. "There is nothing inherently blue or red about this, by law or by design," Foley said. 10. You have to beware with these reports, though. Thats a point that they made. States that voted against Mr. Trump in 2016 have seen 103,918 deaths, according to the latest New York Times tally on Thursday afternoon, compared with 91,525 in states that supported him. [1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. Despite the prevalent winner-take-all practice, the minority always gets a sizable vote. On August 5, the risk of death in red states was 1.8 times higher than in blue. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. The most significant difference between blue and red states occurred from late June to early August. Pennsylvania voted democratic in the 2020 election. Nearly every town, city and patch of farmland in the country is "purple", a mixture of people, each of whose own political preferences can vary. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. Three Michigan counties flipped from red to blue. [37][38] Nearly half of U.S. voters resided in counties that voted for George W. Bush or John Kerry by 20 percentage points or more in 2004. Both provided Obama with double-digit margins of victory over McCain. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump, despite Trump losing the latter election. Top sources of out-of-state housing demand viewing. In U.S. politics it's common to hear red states and blue states, but where did the expression come from? The use of the term Blue or Red has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as Liberal and those perceived as Conservative. ", "Why the National Popular Vote Compact is Unconstitutional", "Why Blue States Should Exit Red America", "Majority of Trump Voters Want to Split the Nation Into 'Red' and 'Blue' Halves", "Majority of Trump voters believe it's 'time to split the country' in two, new poll finds", "Biden came in to unite, but poll shows US is now more divided than ever", "47% of West Coast Dems, 66% of Southern Republicans want to secede from U.S.", "Shocking poll finds many Americans now want to secede from the United States", "Still miles apart: Americans and the state of U.S. democracy half a year into the Biden presidency | Bright Line Watch", "How People of Faith Voted in the 2008 Presidential Race". Polarization is more evident on a county scale with the growing percentage of the U.S. electorate living in "landslide counties", counties where the popular vote margin between the Democratic and Republican candidate is 20 percentage points or greater. Pennsylvania's CPVI is R+2. [47][48][49] A different poll that same year grouped the United States into five geographic regions, and found that 37% of Americans favored secession of their own region. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. polls closed in Calif., Idaho, Ore., Wash. polls closed in Ariz., Colo., Kan., La., Mich., Minn., Neb., N.M., N.Y., N.D., S.D., Texas, Wis., Wyo. These maps give extra visual weight to larger areal units, whether by county or state. In fact, he said, some states may experience a "red shift," and even Pennsylvania's blue shift may change in the future as different voters adapt to the new absentee ballot system and counties that used to process them on election night stop doing so. The converse can also be true, as in the case of Maine, which had two Republican U.S. senators, but Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the state's electoral votes. [18], Thus, red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people's minds, despite the fact that the Democratic and Republican parties had not officially chosen colors. That solved the problem. 4, another 2020 red state. The terms "red state" and "blue state" have been in familiar lexicon since the 2000 US presidential election. Per Holly's point, keep in mind Montgomery County is a giant, the third most populous county in the state. Similarly, at least one network would have used yellow to indicate a state won by Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, though neither of them did claim any states in any of these years. The. Biden's margin of victory was under 1% in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and it was under 1.2% in Pennsylvania. This election cycle, according to Politico, the state is leaning slightly blue. [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). The advent of color television in America during the late 1950s and early 1960s prompted television news reporters to rely on color-coded electoral maps, though sources conflict as to the conventions they used. So how does all that look visually? President-elect Joe Biden flipped five states from red to blue this election Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania and is expected to flip Georgia, where he leads Trump. In previous elections, the color assignments or even the actual colors used were often different. If you're curious how long the streak is for each state, visit our 'Same Since' Electoral Map Timeline. Individually and collectively, they are not reducible to red or blue.[29]. In 2018, the governor's race was settled by just 55,000 votes. Before Trump's 2016 win, the state voted. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something bigelsewhere. The key swing region is the. Robert Vanderbei at Princeton University made the first Purple America map after the 2000 presidential election. While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obamas 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. [25] All these facts should be taken into account when looking at election maps. Data: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin research. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. A measuring device or measuring instrument is a device to measure a physical quantity or degree of something in our lives every day. For other uses, see, Contrast with color usage in other countries, Table of presidential elections by states since 1972. It is not a red state. Maps of this type are termed choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias. In fact, many of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states which voted for Bush are relatively sparsely populated (Nebraska, for instance, has a population similar to the island of Manhattan). Twenty red states are expected to go for President Donald Trump, and 23 blue states (including DC) are expected to go for former Vice President Joe Biden. Forty-seven of the 50 states were consistent in voting for George W. Bush or his Democratic opponent in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. Below, we've broken out how 16 battleground states voted since 2000 and what the ever-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose thatroute.